Modelling Future Demand for UAM and CCAM in Airport Access

The MAIA project is pleased to share a newly published scientific article that advances our understanding of how emerging mobility solutions (including Urban Air Mobility (UAM) and Connected, Cooperative and Automated Mobility (CCAM) ) could reshape airport accessibility in the coming years.

The paper presents a robust and flexible demand-modelling methodology designed to forecast future modal split for airport access, integrating both existing and hypothetical transport modes within a discrete choice modelling (DCM) framework. Using survey data from over 29,000 passengers at Brussels Airport, the authors calibrate a nested logit model capable of incorporating new options such as UAM and CCAM even before these services are widely deployed.

The study applies this model to a synthetic airport passenger population and estimates that, under realistic future scenarios, UAM could capture 4.7% and CCAM 6.8% of airport access trips, primarily drawing users from taxis and private cars. The methodology is adaptable and assumption-agnostic, offering a valuable tool for policymakers, planners, and researchers as Europe prepares for the introduction of these innovative services.

Thank you for the amazing work on the paper to MAIA consortium members, Behzad Bamdad Mehrabani (Transport & Mobility Leuven), Vincent Henrion, Sebastian Hörl, Nikola Ivanov, Bojana Mirkovic, Juan Blasco Puyuelo, and Elke Bossaert.

🔗 Read the full publication on ScienceDirect:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X25002913?via%3Dihub